In seven months the American people will elect a new Congress to establish the law of the land. If the recent battle over health care reform is any example of the campaigns we are about to see, this will be a knock-down, drag out fight between two deeply entrenched parties and a potentially hostile electorate.
If the elections were held today, the Republicans would take back congress. Even Democratic strategists concede that there would be a bloodbath. The GOP has an energized base and amazing command of media and message.
For the sake of brevity let's look at the national picture rather than individual congressional districts.
The national polls are split as to which party would win a generic ballot for Congress, but more recent polls from Fox News, Gallup, and CNN show Republicans in the lead. Older polls from Research 2000, The Washington Post, and Democracy Corps show the Democrats in the lead.
I think it is safe to assume that the Republican Party holds the momentum as we head into campaign season.