A Matter of Choice

Whether Democrats like it or not, there is always a chance that the 2012 elections will put a Republican into the White House. The GOP has a responsibility to nominate a credible candidate for President. I think Mitt Romney is the only potential Republican candidate who is prepared to lead this country.



In the past election, the choice of Senator John McCain (R-AZ) was a good one on the surface. McCain ran unsuccessfully for the nomination several times and had experience on the campaign trail. He was a political moderate known for his ability to reach across the aisle and compromise with Democrats, and he had credible foreign policy experience. McCain was also known as a shrewd, intelligent individual that approached the challenges of governing with gravitas and dignity.

John McCain went awry when he selected an utterly unqualified person like Sarah Palin as his running mate. Sarah Palin represents everything wrong with the Republican Party - willfully ignorant, politically incompetent, it seems like every time Mrs. Palin opens her mouth she does more harm than good. Sarah Palin cost Senator McCain his election and making the mistake of nominating a candidate like her would surely cost the GOP again.

When I look at the field of Republican potentials today, I don't see many individuals who live up to our standards - most candidates resemble Sarah Palin more than they resemble John McCain.

For one thing, ideologues like Ron Paul have no place in the White House. They are utterly incapable of hammering out the compromises that lead to signed legislation and strong diplomacy. Leaders make compromises that most people don't like, accept the blame for them and then present said compromises to their consituents in a manner that makes them acceptable. I can't imagine Ron Paul making a compromise, let alone presenting it to the people in an acceptable manner.

On the other hand, you have leaders like Newt Gingrich who have the intellect and gravitas to sit in the Oval Office but lack the strength of character to be head of state.

Then you have some candidates that are just unacceptable because of their views on race and religion. Southern governors like Haley Barbour (R-MS) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee fall into this category.

The most qualified potential GOP candidate in the field is also the most popular one - which may stand as proof that the Republican Party is not the mass of hardline fools that many liberals try to portray them to be. Mitt Romney's moderate, nuanced points of view are always backed up by a torrent of logic and data. In debate he would be every bit the match for President Obama.

Romney has had the experience of being a Republican governing one of the most Democratic states in the country, Massachussetts. He successfully passed a health care reform law that mirrors Obama's own, and defended it against his critics. Not only that, Romney is also an experienced business man who can hold his own in economic discussions. If Obama must go down in defeat in Novemeber 2012, Romney is the only one who could credibly claim to be a better leader than him.

Social Media becomes a driver for political involvement, especially in youth

In 1440 Johannes Gutenburg created the printing press. In 1999, Al Gore claimed to have invented the internet. Whether it was Al Gore or DARPA that actually invented the internet is irrelevent:

The internet has profoundly changed the world we live in by creating movements and instigating revolutions, especially among the young. You can blame the former Vice President for wanting to get a piece of THAT action, can you?



According to a Pew Internet and American Life study, 22% of the American electorate used social networking sites to connect with candidates and campaigns in the last electoral cycle. Mainstream sites like Twitter, Facebook and MySpace combined with politicians and political action groups' own pages have combined to create a new way for potential voters to interact with candidates and campaigns.

The Pew study found that in the months leading up to the 2010 elections, Republicans caught up with Democrats in participation and presence on social networking sites.

"Among social networking site users, 40% of Republican voters and 38% of Democratic voters used these sites to get involved politically."

Many of the TEA Party protests that dotted the nation during the campaign season were organized on Web sites. Perhaps bridging the social networking gap may be an explaining factor for the GOP's gains in 2010.

An earlier study in 2008 found a sharp increase in American voters who claimed to use the internet to find election news, and that 1 in 5 internet users has posted political commentary online.

Elsewhere in the world the same sites are being used to organize democratic revolutions. Both Tunisia and Egypt recently experienced successful peaceful revolutions that were organized and aided by a strong presence on social networking sites.

The studies also found that social media users tend to be younger and more educated. The demographics of many Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, are heavily skewed toward youth, and their education levels have improved.

Why I'm worried about Lebanon - but not that worried

I love Lebanon. Love it. There are few cities I have enjoyed more than Beirut, and few vistas as breathtaking as looking over the Bekaa Valley from the top of Mount Lebanon. It should come as no surprise, then, that my heart sank into my stomach when news of the Lebanese government's collapse came over the airwaves.



For those who are uninformed, 10 representatives left Lebanon's ruling coaltion, forcing an election and reorganization in a country whose latest government was cobbled together with international assistance. They left after the Sunni Muslim Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, refused to stop an inquiry into the assassination of his popular brother in 2005. It was originally thought that Syria was involved in the assassination, leading to the Cedar Revolution that saw the Syrian military withdraw from Lebanese territory.

All of the members who withdrew from the government are associated with Hezbollah - in a series of speeches last summer Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah condemned the inquiry, and it is thought that the inquiry will implicate members of Hezbollah in the assassination.

There is indeed great reason for concern; Lebanon is only 20 years removed from one of the most intense and extensive civil conflicts the world has ever known. Lebanon is also one of the linchpins of the Arab-Israeli conflict, with both sides fighting through proxies in the small Levantine nation.

However, some commentators are taking their fearmongering to ridiculous levels, predicting a civil war or a war with Israel immediately. Their fears are largely unfounded. The collapse of the Hariri government would only be the first step to larger conflict. Though the behavior of external actors isn't helping matters, the Lebanese are still a long way from reorganizing into militias and walling themselves up in sectarian enclaves. Cooler heads will likely prevail.

For one thing, the members who withdrew from the government were all Hezbollah members. The western assumption is that all the Muslims in Lebanon support Hezbollah, but I can say from personal experience that it is not the case. The vast majority of Lebanese, Christian, Muslim and others support the militia's struggle against Israel, framing it as a national struggle against an invasive force. They do not support Hezbollah's politics. I would predict that Mr. Nasrallah has overestimated his influence and will lose this battle against Lebanon's growing civil society. When the Special Tribunal releases its indictments, and if it implicates Hezbollah, I doubt that the majority of Lebanese will support those responsible for the assassination of their beloved Rafic Hariri. They just want to work and live out their lives without senseless conflict and bloodshed, and if they are left to themselves by the likes of Israel, Iran and Syria, they might jsut get that chance.

It should come as no surprise that most of the people predicting doom and gloom in Lebanon are conservative - they have a vested religious and geopolitical interest in sewing the seeds of conflict in the Middle East. What else explains their posturing against peace in the Arab Israeli conflict? It would also come as no surprise if they ended up being wrong - as they have been wrong time and again when it comes to Arab affairs.

Here's someone who has it right.

9/14/10 Question of the Day

Polling shows that the Democrats are poised to lose control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections in November.

If this scenario plays out, Nancy Pelosi would no longer be Speaker of the House (that position would go to Rep. John Boehner, (R-OH what a fabulous tan)) and her position among the leadership of House Democrats would likely be up for grabs.

Who should replace Speaker Pelosi as the leader of House Democrats?

Some changes

Get ready for a few changes around here. For one thing I am heading to Beirut this summer and will used Unreined to talk about my experiences in Lebanon. Expect lots of pictures, video and stories as I will be documenting all of it.

For another there is a big midterm election season coming up and it appears that the GOP's momentum may be slowing a bit. Given the recent success of Obama administration policies and positive economic data, anyone who is now prognosticating November's election results is out of their mind.

A good case in point is the Florida Republican Senate primary where arch-conservative Marco Rubio now holds a huge margin over moderate governor Charlie Crist after trailing by as much as 50 points just months ago. There are two game-changers at work as this race transitions from primary to general election: One is the potential for Crist to run as an independent with enough influence to split both the GOP and the Democratic electorate. Two is for an IRS investigation into Rubio's use of state Republican Party credit cards to turn up something serious.

There are senate and house races across the country that bear watching just like the one in Florida. Before the Beirut trip, I will take a look into all of them for you.

Who saw this coming?

WHOA!

Romney or Gingrich as the frontrunners against Obama at this point.

Only because no one in their right mind expects Ron Paul to ever be taken seriously as long as he continues to advocate insane foreing policy.